The potential for a long and widespread wildland fire season this year is very real, according to Rick Ochoa, a National Weather Service meteorologist assigned to the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.

Ochoa is blaming the fire threat potential on the effect of the La Niña weather pattern that has established itself once again. The La Niña pattern is characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific, and it tends to hold the North American storm track farther north into western Canada and then dipping southward into the Great Lakes and the northeast. Thus, Ochoa said, western and southeastern states have missed out on much-needed precipitation this past fall and winter.

Ochoa also blames the potential for a serious fire season on the dry fuel conditions that have carried over for more than a year.

Specifically, an above-average fire season is expected in Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia and, especially, Florida, according to Ochoa.

In addition, he said, given the meager snowpack and a warmer-than-normal spring, the snowmelt will be well ahead of schedule. Depending on the number, timing and intensity of the spring rains, and the June rains in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, the west may experience a near- to above-average fire season, Ochoa said.

On an optimistic note, Ochoa said that the unknowns — snowpack, spring rains and June rain — might still bring the moisture needed to ease the dry conditions and the concerns of fire managers and meteorologists for the upcoming wildland fire season.

To contact Rich Ochoa, call NIFC at 208-384-9824 or e-mail <<a href="mailto:rick.ochoa@noaa.gov" target="_blank">rick.ochoa@noaa.gov>.