In one sense, this model illustrates the fact that you get luckier the longer you can stay out of the crisis box. But you also need to realize that sooner or later there is going to be an end game. You need to be prepared for that end game by making sure that all of your options have been explored.

Lastly, learn how to be a good loser. Anybody can be a winner if all the cards are stacked in his favor. The character of a person often is demonstrated more by how he handles an unsuccessful attempt. If you go into a crisis situation unprepared and you do lose, then go back a couple of paragraphs and read what I had to say about losing. It does you no good to be angry at the party who did come out ahead; it only means that if you are going to have to gamble again against that same party, you better be prepared next time.

In a lifetime of making decisions, you are going to find some decisions that you almost have to make by the flip of a coin. You have a 50/50 chance of succeeding. There are other decisions you will need to face that you cannot flip a coin because the price that will be paid is significant to someone. It could be just as significant to you. It could be significant to your taxpayers. It could be significant to your labor group. You can't afford to gamble.

When Dirty Harry asked, “do you feel lucky?” the operative word was “feel.” An overconfident person might make the wrong judgment at that point in time. A person who has a strong sense of inner confidence, i.e., the feeling that they know what they are doing, might make a totally different decision.

So, in the final analysis, don't be lucky — be better prepared!

With more than 40 years in the fire service, Ronny J. Coleman has served as fire chief in Fullerton and San Clemente, Calif., and was the fire marshal of the state of California from 1992 to 1999. He is a certified fire chief and a master instructor in the California Fire Service Training and Education System. A Fellow of the Institution of Fire Engineers, he has an associate's degree in fire science, a bachelor's degree in political science and a master's degree in vocational education.

With more than 40 years in the fire service, Ronny J. Coleman has served as fire chief in Fullerton and San Clemente, Calif., and was the fire marshal of the state of California from 1992 to 1999. He is a certified fire chief and a master instructor in the California Fire Service Training and Education System. A Fellow of the Institution of Fire Engineers, he has an associate's degree in fire science, a bachelor's degree in political science and a master's degree in vocational education.

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