This either will be the best opportunity for the fire service or the worst — it's our choice. Our future over the next 10 to 20 years will be solely dependent upon whether leaders and their organizations are prepared. The future is fairly predictable; the preparation for it isn't as obvious. Yesterday's war stories won't cut it; many of the things on our horizon have never been seen before. It will be a whole new day.

The baby boomers will be hitting the health-care system in numbers that no one is talking about. They're 78 million-strong — about 25% of America. We know three things about senior citizens: they're the high-risk group for accidents, the high-risk group for fires and the high-demand group for EMS. What impact do you think they will have on your department?

Senior citizens vote and the fire and emergency services will be held accountable to them through their elected officials. Seniors aren't as concerned about schools — their children are raised. They are not as concerned about roads and infrastructure as they are about making sure that when they're having trouble, someone is on the way to help them.

Seniors are moving into congregate housing — 300 to 400 people in one building, with independent living, assisted living and nursing care all on one premises. These buildings will be islands of total dependence on the fire and emergency services in times of disaster — flood, hurricane, earthquake or blizzard. These people are the least able to take care of themselves or self-evacuate. The staff they rely upon for help won't come to work in a disaster and many of the residents will be one day away from death because of some life-sustaining medication. Preplanning and all-hazards exercises are a must. What will one responding engine company do when there are 300 walking wounded?

Fire departments increasingly will be called to non-fire or non-EMS calls. The fire department of the future will be an agency of first and last resort; the agency for all-hazards response. Very simply, if a person threatens a person, the police department will be called. If a "thing" threatens a person (and that "thing" can be anything from a tsunami to a wind-blown street sign), then the fire department will be called.

The greening of America is creating problems, and we're not paying attention. Bio-fuels are being processed, refined and distributed in and from rural areas ill-prepared to respond to large fires. These fuels are alcohol based and are much more volatile than gasoline. By the way, how do you handle an alcohol fire? Do you or your captain on Engine 1 remember?

Dead load (solar panels/insulation) is being added to structures that were not designed or built to hold such elements. The consequences of builders using light-weight construction materials are being discussed, but there isn't much being done. In the meantime, builders are gluing pre-fabricated structural members together! If you were to ask a person who designs or builds low-density residential structures, most would say that the structures are designed and built to contain energy and protect against the weather — not to withstand fire. Once a fire starts, all bets are off.

I hear this question a lot: "Where is the next generation of fire-service leaders?" Believe me, they're out there — I meet them every day and they're terrific. No one ever thinks the next generation will make it. Socrates didn't and we don't; our parents didn't and neither did our grandparents. The new generation coming up behind us is different. It's great that they're different. They're supposed to be different. They have to be different — it's a different world out there. They don't need critics and naysayers; they need today's leaders to show them, to provide examples for them, to help them — just like the previous generation did for today's leaders. If you're concerned about tomorrow's leaders, do something about it.

There will be increased liability for the fire and emergency services as a result of several things. First, people are realizing that the fire service isn't composed of the invincible heroes we'd like to think we are. We make mistakes; individuals in organizations do stupid things because they don't think they'll get caught — but now there are cameras everywhere. If you don't realize that everything you do at an emergency, and responding to and from an emergency, is on camera, you don't have a grasp of reality. We need to live our lives as if we are on camera 24 hours a day. There will be a corresponding demand, as a result of tort law, to demonstrate that members of the fire service are competent; that they were trained, certified and operated within acceptable professional standards. A courtroom isn't a pleasant place to discuss the need to improve your training.

The revolution in communications is outpacing our ability to deal with it. It is impossible to predict what's next in terms of new technologies, but if you think that today's 10-year-old is going to grow up and become an officer who can write cogent reports, instructions or guidance — you don't have a clue. The English language is changing; everything is 140 characters or less, and OMG, you won't be able to keep up with the acronyms!

As in the past, there will be the newest, latest and greatest technology coming out next year and five years from now. I love technology, but the caution for all of us is the proper use of technology and recognizing that even within the confines of proper use, there always are limitations. Computer learning is great, but it has its limitations just as classroom learning does. Beware of the sales person who has the latest, cheapest, fastest, greatest technology; they fill museums and archives. Don't believe me? Look in your basement.

The current budget crisis? What else is new? Governments and organizations within government never have enough money or people to do what they're supposed to do. People don't remember that in the 1970s and 1980s, cities laid off teachers, police officers and firefighters; that cities went bankrupt; and that fire departments went on strike. Yes, on strike. And not small departments either — firefighters in New York City, Chicago, Memphis, Kansas City and others walked off the job.

Financial crises are not new; the people in leadership positions who have to deal with them are. There will be another financial crisis in 2021 and another in 2037; but the people handling the crisis now won't be running their departments then. If you think that because you are selected to be the chief, the clouds will part and the sun will shine, you need to be in another line of work. I've been in local and federal government for a while, and all I've ever heard is, "We need to do more with less." There was only once when I had more than I needed — I was in the Army and had all the bullets, hand grenades and C-rations I could carry. Government leadership is not for the faint of heart.

Sales tax-dependent governments are going to have to learn how to deal with Internet-based sales to at least re-establish their financial bases. All levels of government are going to have to look at different ways of doing business. Forget about the fire service; compared to other departments we're not that big a budget impact. Ask yourself how many superintendents of schools do you have in your county or state? How many supervisors of mathematics or coordinators of audio visuals? How many departments of public works, dump trucks, snow plows or street-sweepers? How many building departments, health departments and tax bureaus? We tend to think of the fire service as the center of the universe — but we're not.

If you are a leader today, your primary mission is to ensure that the people who will be leading your organization tomorrow have the tools to deal with these issues. If you plan to be a leader in the future, you need to prepare yourself now. There are no silver-bullet answers, nor Twitter-like solutions. The future will hold some tough, tough issues, and we're going to need even tougher, smarter people.

I have a presentation that I give called, "It's Not Your Mother's Fire Department Anymore." The firefighter of the 2000s won't recognize the fire department of the 2030s; that's probably good. Fortunately for today and tomorrow's fire-service leader, the United States Fire Administration has some of the data, information, programs and training to help you prepare yourself and your community to deal with these changes. Our Web site is full of opportunities — opportunities that your tax dollars pay for, that will help you today and in the future. Give us a try.

The future is as predictable as the sun coming up in the morning; but you'll have to be awake if you want to see it.

Return to the 2010 Decade Forecast: Sighs of the Times main page.

Or jump to another 2010 Decade Forecast perspective:

• Cultural Barriers
  By Kelvin Cochran, U.S. Fire Administrator
• Booming Woes
  By Denis Onieal, Superintendent, National Fire Academy
• Emerging Economy
  By Rob Brown, Chief, Stafford County (Va.) Fire Department
• Volunteer Issues
  By Philip Stittleburg, Chief, LaFarge (Wis.) Fire Department, and Chairman, NVFC
• Apparatus Advances
  By Peter Darley, President, FAMA, and Chief Operating Officer and Vice President, Darley Co.
• Expanded EMS
  By Gary Ludwig, Deputy Chief, Memphis (Tenn.) Fire Department, and Chairman, IAFC EMS Section
• Federal Deficits
  By Bill Webb, Executive Director, CFSI
• Safety First
  By Rob McLeod, Deputy Chief, Chandler (Ariz.) Fire Department, and Chairman, FDSOA
• Creative City Managers
  By Bill Wolpin, Associate Publisher/Editorial Director, American City & County magazine
• Renewed Hope
  By Meri-K Appy, President, Home Safety Council
• Budget Efficiencies
  By John R. Hill, President, Envizion Financial